트럼프 “57개” 안규백 “80~120개”…북 핵무기 추정치, 왜 다른가 봤더니

The former US President Donald Trump asserted that North Korea possesses 57 nuclear weapons during an unusual statement. The claim made by Trump is not significantly different from the estimates provided by international research institutions. On the 19th (local time), Trump told journalists at the White House in Washington D.C., "He (Kim Jong-un) has 57 very powerful nuclear weapons."

The number of nuclear weapons possessed by North Korea mentioned by Trump is similar to the estimates made by international research organizations. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), in its June 2026 release titled 'SIPRI Yearbook', estimated that North Korea had around 90 warheads, capable of producing approximately 60 nuclear warheads.

This figure is 10 more than the estimate of the previous year. The US Nuclear Science Association (BAS) predicted that North Korea may have produced up to 90 nuclear weapons in 2024, which could be assembled into approximately 50 nuclear weapons. Moreover, North Korea might be able to secure enough nuclear materials annually to produce an additional 6 warheads, which, if all were weaponized, would result in around 130 nuclear weapons by 2030.

North Korea does not disclose specific information regarding its nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and production capabilities, which makes it impossible for research institutions to gauge the current stockpile accurately. Domestic research institutions estimate North Korea to possess 2 to 3 times more nuclear weapons based on international data.

The Ministry of National Defense's Secretary General, Choi Gyun-bae, stated on the 20th during a full parliament session of the National Defense Committee that they estimate between 80 to 120 nuclear weapons, considering it quite challenging to provide an exact figure. This range is based on evaluation by domestic private research institutions.

On November 2023, the Korea National Defense University's Institute of Strategic Studies Director, Han Sang-kyu, presented an estimate that North Korea currently possesses between 127 to 150 nuclear warheads during the '2025 North Korea Military Forum'. This estimate diverges from international research organization numbers, which the institute explained was due to North Korea's recent construction of new uranium enrichment facilities in Yongbyon and Gangwon.

The Korea Institute for Defense Analyses and the US Land Institute, in their joint report published in 2023, forecast that North Korea could produce up to 300 nuclear weapons by 2030. Park Jeong-wook, Director of the Peace Research Institute and representative of the Peace Network, stated to The Korea Herald, "The remarks made by Trump and Secretary Choi Gyun-bae typically fall within the estimated range provided by domestic and foreign research institutions.

Domestic research institutions tend to present larger figures to create a sense of urgency without conducting independent information collection; therefore, it is difficult to trust their estimates entirely."