UK CPI set to show inflation rebounding to four-month high due to higher energy bill

The UK's Office for National Statistics will release its July Consumer Price Index report at 06:00 GMT, which could signal a rebound in inflation to a four-month high. The data may influence expectations of a Bank of England interest rate hike in September, causing GBP volatility due to energy price fluctuations resulting from the Middle East conflict.

The UK CPI is forecasted to increase 2.9% year-over-year (YoY) in July, up from 2.5% in June. If true, this would be the highest rate in four months and exceed the BoE's prediction of 2.8%, straying further from its 2% objective. While core CPI is anticipated to ease slightly to 2.5% YoY, service inflation, a critical BoE metric, is projected to stand at 3.4% YoY.

Analysts forecast a 0.3% monthly increase in the British CPI after June's 0.1% growth. TD Securities warns that food prices are susceptible to a rise due to higher fertiliser costs and adverse weather, while airfare inflation could also surge. Core goods inflation is showing signs of turning higher due to electronics price increases and supply chain pressures reducing discounting opportunities.

This inflation outlook may complicate the UK's path to more stable inflation levels. The upcoming CPI data is crucial in determining if the disinflation trend is reversing, potentially prompting the BoE to consider a rate increase at its September 17 monetary policy meeting.