UAE airfares could stay high through much of 2026 as Middle East aviation faces longer disruption

Dubai and Abu Dhabi play a crucial role in the global aviation industry, handling around 14% of international transit traffic and connecting approximately one-fifth of Europe-Asia travel. A new report by Tourise and Oxford Economics warns that high airfares in the Middle East could persist throughout 2026 due to ongoing disruption affecting Gulf airspace, airline capacity, and fuel markets.

The report predicts global airfares could remain 5 to 10 percent above pre-war expectations during this period, with sustained disruption potentially causing prices to rise even higher. The impact of the Middle East crisis is expected to continue even after the immediate security situation improves, as airlines face higher fuel costs, longer flight paths, and reduced capacity due to airspace restrictions.

Gulf hubs account for a significant portion of global transit traffic, and any disruptions to these airports can affect long-haul passengers connecting between Europe, Asia, and other global markets. The crisis has already led to a substantial decline in international capacity and passenger demand in the Middle East, with Middle Eastern carriers operating around 50% fewer flights year-on-year in March 2026 compared to the previous year.