Super El Niño: Best and Worst US States To Travel to This Winter

A rapidly intensifying El Niño event is raising concerns about one of the strongest climate occurrences on record, potentially altering winter weather patterns across the United States and the world. Experts have been closely monitoring the event for months using various tools to track sea-surface temperatures and wind patterns in the Pacific.

Scientists predict the warming effect will persist through the fall and winter, increasing the likelihood of significant global weather impacts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently labels the event as "very strong" rather than "super," but meteorologists often informally refer to exceptionally intense episodes as "super" El Niños.

For winter travelers, this distinction may be less important compared to the potential weather impacts, ranging from flooding rains in California and the Southwest to severe storms in the Southeast. While the NOAA does not officially recognize a "super" El Niño category, meteorologists and climate researchers use the term informally to describe exceptionally powerful events.

Currently, the El Niño is among the strongest observed for this time of year, with a 90% chance of reaching "very strong" status and a 69% chance of exceeding all recorded El Niño events since 1950. The rapid intensification of the event is attributed to record global ocean temperatures and a large reservoir of warm subsurface water.

However, NOAA cautions that the strongest and most widespread impacts typically occur during the fall and winter when the warming Pacific waters have fully developed and begin to influence global atmospheric circulation and seasonal weather patterns. AccuWeather long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok suggests that Southern California and parts of the Southwest may be among the most challenging destinations for winter travelers during a traditional El Niño, as the region is likely to experience frequent, significant rain and increased travel disruptions.

Northern states might disappoint visitors seeking traditional winter recreation, as warmer-than-normal temperatures could reduce snow and ice coverage. However, skiers in the Intermountain West, such as the Colorado city of Denver and the California Sierra Nevada, may enjoy a decent amount of snow this year, according to Pastelok.

The Southeast presents a mixed picture, with northern Florida and southern Georgia potentially facing severe weather, including tornadoes, while places like Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Fort Myers, and the Keys might experience "good weather." The El Niño phenomenon also impacts rainfall patterns across various regions globally, with some areas experiencing drought while others face flooding.