Strangle them: Trump's new approach in Iran war

U.S. President Donald Trump is altering his strategy toward Iran, shifting from a focus on a prompt diplomatic resolution to implementing persistent economic and military pressure, according to CNN. This change comes as ongoing talks between the United States and Iran have hit a roadblock, and a separate effort by Iran and Oman to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz introduces additional complications for Washington.

According to a U.S. official cited by CNN, Trump has directed his Iran negotiating team, which includes Vice President Mike Pence and diplomats Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, to refrain from engaging with Tehran for now. White House sources communicated to CNN that the administration's approach is transforming from "hammer Iran immediately" to "strangle them" gradually.

This shift coincides with the ongoing deadlock over the Strait of Hormuz, where maritime traffic remains significantly hindered despite claims that the waterway is "open and operating." U.S. President Trump asserted on Tuesday that no discussions or meetings were scheduled with Iran. He also emphasized the continuation of a naval blockade and claimed that mines had been cleared from the Strait of Hormuz.

However, CNN's reports suggest that the actual situation does not align with Trump's description, as ship traffic has dwindled to a fraction of its normal volume, and vessels continue to encounter attacks.

Kpler data, referenced in recent reports, indicated that confirmed crossings through the strait dropped by 19.5% last week to 95, indicating a further slowdown in shipping activity. On Wednesday, the situation worsened as shipowners continued to avoid the strait due to uncertainty regarding the resumption of normal traffic following the U.S. blockade during the Iran conflict. Six cargo vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday, a decline from nine the previous day and below the 10-day average of 11.

Trump's dissatisfaction with the emerging Iran-Oman initiative to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has intensified. The president has expressed displeasure with Oman's involvement in the negotiations. Two regional officials told CNN that Trump was unhappy with Oman's efforts to reach an agreement with Iran. The U.S. president had previously threatened to bomb Oman if it interfered.

However, Iran and Oman have been discussing a mechanism to reopen the strait, with one proposed arrangement involving Iranian and Omani control over different segments of the shipping route. The Trump administration opposes several aspects of the proposal, including joint management and potential fee collection from vessels, according to officials briefed on the U.S. standpoint.

Trump has maintained that shipping should revert to the unrestricted conditions existing before the war. The dispute is particularly problematic since the Strait of Hormuz is crucial for global oil and gas shipments, making it a key obstacle to resolving the conflict. Egypt believes that the Iran-Oman talks could eventually facilitate a revival of U.S.-Iran diplomacy, following a meeting between Egyptian and Omani foreign ministers.

The 60-day negotiating period between the U.S. and Iran concluded without a clear agreement, prompting Trump to reportedly want Iran to initiate the process before his team resumes talks.

Apart from the Strait of Hormuz, tensions are spreading beyond the region. Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for a drone attack targeting an oil refinery operated by Saudi Aramco in Saudi Arabia, though no immediate confirmation of damage was provided from Riyadh. The Houthis have also intensified attacks on Saudi-linked targets and Red Sea shipping, raising concerns about the potential impact on regional energy and trade routes.

The UAE separately reported that two ballistic missiles were launched from Iran towards its territory, with one landing outside UAE waters and the other inside, though no casualties or damage were reported. Iran denied these allegations, stating that such claims undermine efforts to strengthen trust among regional countries and prevent security deterioration.

In addition to these developments, fighting continued in Gaza, where an Israeli strike on Gaza City resulted in the death of six people and the wounding of 14, according to Shifa Hospital. Trump's changing approach follows months of inconsistent signals from his administration, including a claim by Jared Kushner that U.S.-Iran contacts were "probably more robust" than ever and "very positive and active conversations."

However, Iran has consistently denied any engagement in direct negotiations with Washington. Trump's frustration stems from Tehran's refusal to accept his demands and the lack of progress towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. is anticipated to impose stricter sanctions on Iran, potentially as early as this week, while U.S. military officials have indicated that forces in the region are prepared to maintain the blockade of Iranian ports for an extended period.