Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s grip slips as ships increasingly use UN-authorised Oman route; US blockade gains ground
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical focus as US control strengthens and Iran's grip weakens over it. About 80% of vessels now prefer an Omani route sanctioned by the UN, bypassing Iranian aggression despite Tehran's attempt to reassert toll collection rights.
The Strait of Hormuz, a pivotal chokepoint in global oil trade, has become a focal point for competing claims of control between Iran and the United States. Since the conflict between the two nations escalated on February 28, the waterway has witnessed a shift in dynamics, with Iran's grip slipping and the US strengthening its presence.
Around 80% of vessels transiting the strait have opted for the UN-authorised Omani route, according to Kpler, a shipping tracking firm. Iran has been targeting ships attempting to use this northern route by firing on them. In contrast, the US has offered protection to these ships, prompting many to avoid Tehran's demands and continue their journey through the strait.
Kpler's head of crude oil analysis, Homayoun Falakshahi, stated that "it increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait." This shift is evident as Iran now struggles to collect tolls from passing ships, a practice it attempted in earlier months.
With the temporary ceasefire between Iran and the US set to expire, Tehran has the option to resume toll collection. However, it has yet to do so, as most Middle Eastern countries prefer alternative routes for their oil exports. Arab neighbours, including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, are utilizing Very Large Crude Oil Carriers (VLCCs) to bypass the strait, transferring their oil to customer tankers in the Gulf of Oman after passing through the dangerous zone.
The US military reports a significant increase in oil shipping via the strait, with US Energy Secretary Chris Wright revealing that 15 million barrels of oil are transiting daily, nearing the pre-war average of 20 million barrels. This surge in US dominance has led Trump to claim the strait as "U.S. Territory" on social media. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, vehemently rejected this assertion, calling Trump a "deluded man" and promising to correct his "delusions."
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