Putin’s mobilization gamble could expand army while destabilizing his regime — NV analysis
Russia could mobilize as many as 500,000 people as early as this fall. But a larger army could create serious military, economic and political problems for the Kremlin.
Russia may mobilize up to 500,000 individuals as early as this fall, potentially expanding its military and destabilizing its regime, according to Novaya Gazeta Europe analysis. However, a larger army could result in serious military, economic, and political problems for the Kremlin. Expect Putin to prepare for another mobilization wave in the fall, with the possibility of launching a fresh offensive in northern Ukraine in February 2027 if mobilization is completed by then.
Reports of conscripts from Russia's Perm region being pressured into signing Defense Ministry contracts while still traveling to their units surfaced during the second half of July. Conscripts are reportedly facing threats such as "sign now while they are still paying, because mobilization could begin soon and then they will take you for free."
Russian casualties have surpassed contract soldier recruitment for three consecutive months, as cited by Bloomberg. Ukraine's military intelligence estimates that Russia lost 196,700 troops from January to July, while recruiting 195,000 people during the same period. Russia is on track to hold its State Duma elections on September 18-20, making the period after the elections a more probable window for any decision on mobilization.
Zelenskyy claims Putin plans to mobilize between 300,000 and 500,000 people, with the active phase potentially starting in October. The Kremlin maintains that mobilization is not on the agenda, yet Russian authorities have reportedly compiled lists of people to be called up and expanded the list of Criminal Code offenses that allow prisoners to be sent to war.
Written by urgent.news from New Voice of Ukraine's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
