Price prediction today: Will gold rise in near-term? Check today's outlook

Gold prices are showing positive momentum today, with the commodity gaining around 0.7% last week and hovering above $4,400. However, the near-term outlook remains optimistic despite some volatility, according to Vedika Narvekar, a Research Analyst at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. This optimism is driven by softer US inflation and retail-sales data, which reduced expectations of a September Fed hike. Additionally, weaker dollar and renewed investor demand for gold have supported the rally.

Global gold ETFs added approximately $3 billion in July, reversing a two-month trend of outflows, and holdings increased by 39 tonnes year-to-date. Central-bank demand, particularly from China's 21 consecutive months of buying, continues to provide a strong floor for gold prices. Concerns over fiscal sustainability, bond-market volatility, and geopolitical uncertainty are further enhancing gold's appeal as a diversification tool.

The near-term bias for gold remains positive but volatile, primarily influenced by key events such as the Fed's July meeting minutes and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks at Jackson Hole. Currently, there is a 65% probability of a September hold versus a 35% chance of a rate hike. Factors like oil prices remaining above $85 and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz may keep inflation expectations elevated, balancing safe-haven demand and higher-rate expectations.

In the medium term, gold's outlook is fundamentally constructive, supported by ETF inflows, central-bank buying, and softer US data. Geopolitical and fiscal risks provide additional support to the medium-term setup. From a technical perspective, gold is currently trading above $4,290, with $4,450 as the immediate breakout trigger and $4,550 as the next psychological/technical hurdle.