'Power of the purse': What Trump stands to lose in US midterm test
As midterm primaries continue with elections in several states this week, analysts are predicting a shake-up.
The 2026 United States midterm elections are expected to be a significant test of Donald Trump's political influence. The Democratic Party aims to regain control of the House of Representatives, while Republicans strive to maintain their grip on Congress. These elections could reshape the balance of power in Washington during the final two years of Trump's presidency.
The first primaries took place in March, with subsequent primaries held in Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming this week. Democrats see the midterms as an opportunity to demonstrate that dissatisfaction with Trump can translate into electoral gains and to begin rebuilding the party ahead of the 2028 general election. Republicans, however, are concerned about the historical tendency for a president's party to lose ground during midterm elections.
A Democratic-controlled House could lead to increased scrutiny, investigations, and political resistance for Trump during his remaining years in office. Wesley Widmaier, a professor at the Australian National University Department of International Relations, explains that a loss for Trump would mean losing control over the power of the purse, as the House controls the budgeting process.
Historically, the president's party tends to lose seats in the House during midterm elections, as people may lose interest in the incumbent after a few years. Democrats need to gain four seats to outnumber the Republicans, but analysts believe they will win enough seats to claim the majority. If Democrats regain control of the House, they would be able to oppose policies more strongly and hold Republican leaders accountable, similar to the situation during Barack Obama's presidency when the Democrats lost around 40 House seats in 2010.
Trump would also lose the power of the purse, making it more difficult to spend money on election promises. Additionally, a Democratic-controlled House might scrutinize Trump's involvement in immigration, financial affairs, and cryptocurrency. A potential complication in the 2026 House elections is gerrymandering, where state legislators redraw congressional boundaries to give the ruling party an advantage.
This practice varies in different countries, with US congressional districts often being influenced by partisan politics. The redrawing of electoral boundaries can make it challenging to predict how shifts in voter sentiment will translate into seats, even if Democrats perform well nationwide.
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