Pakistan: Could ex-PM Imran Khan make a new deal?

On Tuesday, Pakistan's Supreme Court ordered jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan to be transferred to Shifa International Hospital in Islamabad for medical evaluation, following concerns about his deteriorating health in Adiala jail. Khan, founder of the opposition party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), has been incarcerated since August 2023, serving a 14-year sentence for corruption allegations he claims are politically motivated.

The military denies orchestrating his arrest to keep him out of politics. Despite his imprisonment, Khan remains popular among his supporters, who achieved strong results in the February 2024 election.

Khan's party advisor, Sayed Zulfi Bukhari, dismissed speculation of a political deal, stating, "There is no deal between Imran Khan and anyone. This is the Supreme Court's decision, which is very much welcomed." The government, through Law Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar, has vowed to contest the court order, insisting that a convicted prisoner should be treated in a jail or public hospital, not a private facility.

Legal experts note that Khan has not been granted bail or had his convictions suspended, meaning he remains a prisoner. His health issues, including poor eyesight, fluctuating blood pressure, and anxiety, have been exacerbated by solitary confinement. Analysts suggest the health concerns have prompted the court's intervention, emphasizing the need for credible and transparent medical care, particularly given Khan's age.

The court's decision has also highlighted the PTI's and Khan's family's persistent doubts about his medical treatment, including restricted access to doctors and lack of transparency. Analysts argue that the state has a vested interest in ensuring proper care due to Khan's political influence. However, the party's future appears uncertain without Khan's direct political involvement, as he is unlikely to hold any government position if his party eventually comes to power.

Despite his imprisonment, Khan's popularity poses a challenge for authorities, who must weigh the potential risks of releasing him without a broader settlement. Any reconciliation with the military establishment would likely be necessary for a lasting political agreement, but deep mistrust and Khan's resistance to compromise complicate the prospects for such a deal.