OPINION: Drought will plunge France into a food prices crisis

In the Normandy hills, a European catastrophe is unfolding as John Lichfield observes from his garden. The region, renowned for its camembert, calvados, and rainfall, has transformed into a landscape of yellow and grey, mirroring the Oklahoma dust bowl of the 1930s. Summer rainfall has become a distant memory, leaving Normandy's green hills and forests desiccated.

A week ago, a large maize field was lush, now a dusty yellow, mirroring the rest of the region. Yves, a local farmer, was compelled to harvest his maize two months early, a stark indication of the impending crisis. The meadows that once provided grazing for his dairy cows have turned to stubble, forcing the animals indoors. The maize was requisitioned to feed them.

By November, the cows will have exhausted their winter food supply, necessitating the purchase of imported fodder. A farming crisis looms, followed by a food price crisis. The focus has shifted from extreme heat to the severe drought of 2026, with repeated heatwaves and temperatures surpassing 30°C exacerbating the situation. The drought, characterized by a 67% rainfall deficit in July – the third highest since 1959 – has affected not just France but the entire of Europe, save for Ireland, Scotland, and Scandinavia.

Water levels in rivers like the Orne, the second-largest in Normandy, have plummeted, reducing it to a muddy ditch. The Rhine, too, has never been this low, with barge traffic to Rotterdam reduced to 30% capacity. The water crisis poses a threat not only to agriculture but also to nuclear power stations and data-storage facilities for artificial intelligence.

French wheat and barley harvests were early but poor, with a 25% drop in courgettes, 35% in lettuces, 40% in peas, and 60-100% declines in broccoli and artichokes. Farmers, who recently received a delayed state aid package, are already lobbying for a multi-billion Euro subsidy program to survive the winter. The weather has also impeded French economic growth and tax income, contributing to three successive governments falling in two years.

The 2027 budget, set to commence shortly, is anticipated to be fraught with challenges. Food prices are already rising and expected to soar further. Despite the ongoing political turmoil and climate change-induced calamities, voters are unlikely to elect a candidate who advocates for climate change mitigation, opting instead to blame governments for their predicament.