Mary Peltola's Chances of Beating Dan Sullivan to Flip Alaska Senate Seat

In Alaska's closely contested Senate race, Republican Senator Dan Sullivan and former Democrat Mary Peltola are the top contenders heading into the general election. According to recent polls, Peltola is leading with 47.8 percent of the vote compared to Sullivan's 43.3 percent, with just under 80 percent of ballots already counted.

Another Republican candidate, also named Dan Sullivan, holds a 2.5 percent share of the vote. All four candidates will advance to the general election through ranked-choice voting. If no candidate secures an outright majority, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their supporters' preferences are redistributed to the remaining candidates.

Alaska has historically leaned Republican, but Democrats see the Senate race as a potential swing state that could determine control of the Senate after the midterms. The state's tight margins in recent years and Peltola's strong record in statewide elections have made the race highly competitive. While Trump's approval rating has waned nationally, he still won the state by 13 points in 2024, making it a challenging environment for Democrats.

Recent polls suggest a tight race, with Peltola narrowly ahead by 6 points in the latest survey, 53 percent to 47 percent. However, prediction markets show a slightly lower likelihood of Peltola's victory at 52 percent compared to Sullivan's 47 percent.