Iran’s two-pronged strategy: The eradication of US forces in the Gulf and political defeat in Washington

Iran has shifted its approach from retaliatory strikes to a deliberate, multi-faceted strategy focused on two primary goals. Firstly, the nation aims to progressively eliminate American military presence and influence in the Persian Gulf. Secondly, Iran seeks to politically dismantle the Trump presidency through targeted economic and strategic pressures timed to align with the American electoral calendar.

In pursuit of the first goal, Iran is steadily wearing down U.S. naval forces and reducing American ground presence at key Gulf bases. The goal is to make the cost of maintaining these positions politically untenable for host-nation states. By not engaging in full force hostilities, Iran aims to force American troops and aircraft to operate from greater distances, complicating logistics and extending response times.

This strategy allows Iran to bolster its influence across the northern Gulf without risking an overwhelming retaliation that could reverse its gains.

On the political front, Iran targets the U.S. electorate and President Trump's support base by keeping oil prices high. Leveraging control of the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing disruptions in Red Sea shipping, Iran creates sustained price pressures. These economic pressures feed directly into the 2022 midterm elections, where a president facing high energy costs and questions about the wisdom of confrontation is at a disadvantage.

By avoiding aggressive action against Israel, Iran preserves political space in the U.S., potentially impacting congressional support and broadening the political debate toward strategic and economic consequences rather than unilateral action.