Iran Eyes US Military Targets in Europe if War Escalates

Iranian officials have reportedly contemplated attacking US military installations in southeastern European nations and Cyprus if the ongoing conflict escalates, according to sources familiar with the Iranian regime, as claimed by the Financial Times. The regime insiders suggested that potential targets could include Bulgaria's Bezmer air base, which was recently utilized by US refueling aircraft, and Cyprus' Akrotiri air base, which was struck by a drone in March.

Furthermore, the same sources revealed that Iran has been evaluating the possibility of targeting undersea fiber-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz in case of further escalation. These threats emerged as discussions aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz have hit a stalemate, and tensions between Iran and Washington persist. President Donald Trump claimed on Tuesday that there are "no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled" with Iran.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other Iranian military commanders have warned that a full-scale conflict could prompt Tehran to broaden its previous approach of targeting US military assets, energy facilities, and infrastructure in the Middle East to farther locations. The scope of any Iranian response would hinge on Washington's actions, according to the insiders.

One source stated that Iran is preparing a plan to escalate the conflict if Trump follows through on prior threats to target Iranian infrastructure, while another said Iran would not impose any limits on its retaliation. The insiders emphasized that Iran has demonstrated its capacity to menace targets beyond its borders, citing the US and Israel's February war, during which Washington accused Tehran of launching several missiles toward the joint US-UK military base in the Indian Ocean, Diego Garcia.

Despite the missiles failing to reach the base, it highlighted Iran's potential to threaten targets far from its territory. In March, Turkey reported that NATO air defenses had intercepted several ballistic missiles launched from Iran, and the UK's Akrotiri air base in Cyprus was also targeted by a drone that same month. These incidents underscore Iran's capability to strike targets across Europe and beyond.

Notably, the July attack on a US base in Jordan, which resulted in the deaths of three American service members, was considered the most precise long-range strike carried out by Iran, signaling its ability to launch attacks at greater distances. This incident also served as a warning to Europe, emphasizing that it could suffer repercussions for its involvement in the conflict.

Sidharth Kaushal, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), described the threat posed by Iranian missiles to European and other targets as "real, but limited," noting that medium-range ballistic missiles, such as those in Iran's Shahab series, could potentially target US assets in southern and southeastern Europe.

However, Kaushal added that these missiles would encounter challenges in causing substantial damage at extended ranges. Douglas Barrie of the International Institute for Strategic Studies echoed this sentiment, stating that Iran's attempted strikes against Diego Garcia demonstrated Tehran's possession of weapons capable of traveling over 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles).

Nonetheless, Barrie cautioned that the risk of missile failures or interceptions, coupled with diminishing accuracy at longer ranges, could diminish the effectiveness of such attacks. Some members of the Iranian regime reportedly harbor concerns that Tehran is overstating its capabilities as negotiations remain unresolved. Many hardliners believe that Washington cannot be trusted to adhere to any future agreement, and Iran must impose significant costs on the US to ensure compliance with commitments under a final settlement.

Among these hardliners is Mohsen Rezaei, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander appointed as the country's top security official last week by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. This appointment, according to Iranian analysts, suggests that figures like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's top negotiator, have been sidelined as prospects for a lasting agreement dwindle.

The insiders stated that Iran is sending a clear message to Washington: if an agreement is not reached, they will confront Rezaei, implying that the response will be harsher than that of Ghalibaf. Diplomatic efforts to resume the Strait of Hormuz negotiations and negotiate a broader agreement to end the war have thus far failed to yield a breakthrough, as reported by the Financial Times.