Indian, US fuel exporters make a killing amid wars

U.S. and Indian oil refiners are capitalizing on disrupted fuel supplies caused by conflicts in Iran and Ukraine. Global refining output dropped by 5 million barrels per day in July compared to last year, with demand exceeding 100 million barrels per day. As the global refining throughput decreases, Indian and U.S. refiners are exporting increasingly to nations that once relied on Middle Eastern and Russian fuel imports.

Indian refiners have increased exports by 30% year-over-year, while U.S. refiners exported a record 1.9 million barrels of distillate fuels daily in the week ending August 7, according to government data. The demand for fuels remains robust, with Indonesia's gasoline consumption up around 11-12 million barrels in August, and U.S. gasoline demand averaging approximately 9 million barrels per day, similar to the previous year.

However, U.S. refiners face challenges from President Trump's pressure to lower domestic gasoline prices, which may force them to balance high export margins with domestic supply needs.