How Old Farmer's Almanac's Fall Forecast Compares to Farmers' Almanac
Fall 2026 forecasts from the Old Farmer’s Almanac and Farmers’ Almanac align in places but clash elsewhere.
The Old Farmer's Almanac and Farmers' Almanac have both released their fall 2026 forecasts, though their predictions differ in several regions. Founded in 1792, the Old Farmer's Almanac bases its long-range forecasts on solar science, climatology, and meteorology, utilizing historical weather patterns, solar activity, climate data, and large-scale climate signals.
The Farmers' Almanac, founded in 1818, claims its forecasts are generated using a proprietary formula developed by its founding editor, David Young, taking into account factors like sunspot activity, the Moon's tidal action, planetary positions, and analogue forecasting, with forecasts calculated up to two years in advance.
While both almanacs emphasize their unique forecasting approaches, meteorologists from the National Weather Service and NOAA have raised questions about the reliability of highly specific long-range forecasts made months in advance. Despite their differences, the almanacs often align with official NOAA/NWS seasonal forecasts, particularly in broad regional trends.
However, they also diverge in specific areas such as precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, temperature and rainfall patterns in the Southeast, and other regions.
The most significant divergences occur in the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast. The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts cooler and wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest, with up to three inches more rain than usual in September. In contrast, the Farmers' Almanac anticipates colder weather but expects drier conditions in the region.
Similarly, in the Southeast, the Old Farmer's Almanac anticipates average September and October temperatures that are one degree below normal, along with below-average rainfall, particularly in northern areas. Meanwhile, the Farmers' Almanac describes a warmer and stormier season with less rainfall overall, especially in southern areas.
In the Northeast, the almanacs largely agree on cooler and wetter conditions, while the Southwest sees a general agreement on warmer-than-average September followed by slightly cooler October, with below-average rainfall throughout the fall. Southern Texas is also widely predicted as warmer than average in both September and October, with slightly above-average precipitation by both almanacs.
The Atlantic Corridor, Ohio Valley, Deep South, Upper Midwest, Heartland, Texas and Oklahoma, High Plains, and Intermountain regions show more significant differences between the two forecasts, ranging from cooler and drier conditions to warmer and wetter patterns.
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