Grain prices surge after Ukraine war chokes off seaborne exports

Wheat markets worldwide are facing a cost surge following the collapse of a silent agreement that had protected Black Sea grain ships during the war. Jordan recently canceled two wheat and two barley tenders after receiving limited bids. Asian mills now face delays ranging from 2 to 2.5 million tons, which make up 30% to 50% of their summer imports, while Indonesia seeks alternatives.

Ukraine's infrastructure ministry reported 67 attacks on port facilities in July, including 35 on civilian vessels near ports and 22 on ships in the maritime route. Ukraine's agriculture ministry has warned that exports could drop nearly in half this season. Egypt, which buys over four-fifths of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine in the first half of 2026, is experiencing a worsening situation.

A vessel attempting to load grain for Egypt was recently attacked near Novorossiysk. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy discussed the threat with Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

Black Sea wheat currently trades between $260 and $280 per ton, while Australian wheat is quoted at $315 to $320 including cost and freight to Asia, and the cheapest American wheat is at $305. Chicago wheat futures have surged more than 17% since early July. India's sunflower refiners have shifted to soybean as 150,000 tons of Ukrainian sunflower cargo remained stalled at Black Sea ports. Now, wheat is the next target.