Exploring the links between crime and economic downturns

The story of Bonnie Elizabeth Parker and Clyde Chestnut Barrow, notorious criminals who roamed the United States during the early 1930s, often overshadows the backdrop of their crimes: the Great Depression. Parker's mother passed away when she was only four, and Barrow's family was so impoverished that they resorted to sleeping under a wagon for months.

Both were from humble backgrounds and came together in Dallas, Texas, in 1930, following the Wall Street Crash. The crash marked the onset of a decade-long global economic downturn, characterized by bank failures, unemployment, home repossessions, and widespread poverty.

The Great Depression was the most severe economic crisis the American people had faced since the Civil War and had far-reaching effects worldwide. During this time, crime rates increased, with theft, robbery, and murder becoming more common. While Bonnie and Clyde's story may have inspired some sympathy among those suffering, economists saw their actions as emblematic of a larger issue. Economic crises often coincide with rising crime, primarily because unemployment directly impacts criminality.

A 2016 study published in the Journal of Economic Studies analyzed data from 1965 to 2006 and found that as unemployment rises, so do crime rates. The effects of unemployment can persist even after the economic event, influencing crime rates even after the recession has passed. Other research suggests that unemployment may lead to an increase in specific forms of crime, such as property theft, theft of valuables, and robbery, while some types of violent crime may decline.

The study explored two theories linking higher unemployment and economic pressure to changes in crime rates. The first is the 'criminal motivation effect,' which is based on risk and reward. When individuals lose their jobs, offenses like robbery or theft may become more attractive due to the financial gain they offer and the basic needs they can satisfy.

The second theory is the 'opportunity effect.' During economic crises, the number of targets may fall, leading to a decrease in crime. However, the study found that higher joblessness increases non-violent crime, suggesting that a stable economic environment is essential for stabilizing non-violent crime.