Earnings call transcript: Carlsberg lifts 2026 outlook as Britvic gains speed in H1 2026

Carlsberg's first-half 2026 results were bolstered by higher revenue, stronger margins, and faster-than-expected synergies from Britvic, but the company's shares dipped 3.39% to $877.6 in early trading. This decline reflected investors' concerns over China's performance and the broader uncertainty surrounding the second half. The brewer lifted its full-year organic operating profit growth guidance to 4% to 6% from 2% to 6%, citing improved leverage at 3.0 times EBITDA from 3.9 times and an uptick in free operating cash flow to DKK 3.7 billion.

Carlsberg reported robust growth across all three regions, with organic revenue expansion of 2.7% driven by a 1.7% volume increase and a 1% rise in revenue per hectoliter. Operating margins improved by 30 basis points to 15.8%, and net profits rose 6% to DKK 4.3 billion. The company's product portfolio is diversifying beyond beer, with soft drinks and non-beer beverages now accounting for roughly a third of volumes.

Soft drinks comprise nearly 60% of Western Europe's volumes, helping to offset weaker mainstream beer trends in certain markets. Western Europe contributed significantly to the company's growth, with organic operating profit up 8.7% and margins improving by 80 basis points. Asia also experienced growth, though China's performance remained subdued.

Central and Eastern Europe, as well as India, delivered strong top-line growth, albeit with margins diluted by Pepsi's business in Kazakhstan. Carlsberg's forecast projected EPS of 23.53 and revenue of 26.5 billion, although actual figures for this comparison were not provided. Consequently, a direct beat-or-miss analysis is unavailable.

Nevertheless, the overall outlook for the company remained positive, with management crediting strong H1 execution, better visibility into summer trading, and continued synergies from the Britvic acquisition. Despite the earnings boost, the stock experienced a 3.39% decline, trading at $877.6 compared to the previous close of $908.4.

The shares remain above the 52-week low of $737.4 but are still trading about 13.5% below the 52-week high of $1,015. While the market responded cautiously to the earnings report, InvestingPro data suggests the stock is currently undervalued based on its Fair Value analysis and positions Carlsberg among opportunities on the platform's Most Undervalued stocks list.