Byron Donalds' Chances of Losing to David Jolly in Florida Governor Race
While no Democrat has won the Florida governorship in more than 25 years, Democrats are hoping for an upset in the Sunshine State.
Byron Donalds and David Jolly secured their parties' nominations for Florida governor, setting up a close general election. Florida has trended Republican in recent years, with Trump winning by nearly 13 points in 2024 and DeSantis reelected by over 20 points in 2022. Republicans have a registration advantage, and the state's newly redrawn congressional map further solidifies GOP strength.
While no Democrat has won the governorship since the 1990s, Jolly believes he can win, citing voter desire for change. Donalds won his primary with roughly 49 percent, while Jolly received nearly 62 percent. A recent UNF poll gives Donalds a 46 percent to 41 percent lead, while other surveys show a narrower gap, with Donalds leading by just one point among non-party affiliated respondents.
Prediction markets favor Donalds, giving him an 83 percent chance of winning the general election, whereas Jolly has a mere 18 percent chance. Despite the fundamentals favoring Republicans, a Jolly victory is not impossible, requiring Democrats to unify, appeal to independents, and possibly sway some Republicans.
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