Biomethane supply could fall short of shipping’s 2030 fuel needs – MMMCZCS

Biomethane, a low-carbon fuel, may not meet shipping's projected 2030 fuel requirements, according to the Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping (MMMCZCS). The center predicts global biomethane supply could reach 21 billion cubic meters (bcm) by 2030, potentially covering up to 70% of the low-emissions fuel demand outlined in the IMO's Net-Zero Framework (NZF).

NZF could theoretically require 29.7 bcm of biomethane, if biomethane were to fulfill this demand. However, shipping's actual usage could be lower. MMMCZCS estimates that if all container vessels relied on liquefied biomethane (LBM), they could use around 11 million tonnes of LSFO-equivalent biomethane by 2030, representing approximately 56% of the 21 bcm base-case supply.

Mass balancing, a system that credits biomethane used in maritime fuel elsewhere through a certified chain of custody, is crucial for shipping to access this supply. Without a globally recognized system, shipping would need to rely on segregated biomethane supply chains, which the center says would be difficult and costly to scale.

Shipping's ability to use biomethane also hinges on the growth of methane-capable fleets and bunkering infrastructure. Biomethane can only be utilized by ships capable of burning methane-based fuels, while bunker barges and terminal capacity must expand. Moreover, shipping competes with other sectors for the same supply, and heightened demand from these sectors could limit the amount available to the maritime industry.