Australians sense that a property price crash is coming

Australians are increasingly concerned that a significant drop in property prices is imminent, according to recent reports. Coolabah Capital's Chris Joye highlighted how dwelling values are declining at an annual rate of 12.0% across the country's five major cities, with Sydney experiencing the steepest decline at 16.7% annually. Antipodean Macro's Justin Fabo shared a chart showing an accelerating monthly rate of decline in dwelling values, seasonally adjusted.

This decline in property values has coincided with a decrease in new mortgage commitments. The latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey revealed that expectations for house prices have hit a three-year low, affecting consumers nationwide. The synchronized price correction appears to be widespread, indicating a significant correction may be on the horizon.

The Reserve Bank appears unlikely to increase interest rates anytime soon, given the housing market's weakness. Similarly, it is unlikely to cut rates, considering persistent high inflation and its recent hawkish stance. However, federal budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax are still making their way through the system, potentially impacting the housing market.

To compensate for lost tax benefits, NAB economists and Louis Christopher from SQM Research suggest that gross rental yields need to rise by about 30%. However, most of this compensation is likely to come from falling prices rather than rising rents, similar to what occurred in New Zealand after negative gearing was abolished. Australians are now beginning to realize that the deep house price correction they face may be unlike any seen in recent generations, based on the sharp decline in consumer house price expectations.