Australian Dollar: RBA seen sidelined on softer wages – BBH

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is experiencing underperformance as bond yields decline following Q2 wage growth that met expectations. Brown Brothers Harriman's (BBH) Elias Haddad suggests that this result will maintain a hold on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), with private sector wage gains at a four-year low. Futures still anticipate a potential final interest rate hike, but Haddad believes the odds are now more inclined towards an ongoing pause, despite supportive carry and commodity exposure.

Australia's Q2 wage growth matched the expected consensus, keeping the RBA on hold. Wages rose 0.8% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) for the third consecutive quarter, reaching an annual increase of 3.2%, lower than the RBA's projection of 3.3%. Private sector wages grew at 3.1% y/y, a four-year low, compared to 3.2% in Q1. Public sector wages remained steady at 3.4% y/y for two quarters.

RBA cash rate futures still indicate a 60% probability of a final 25 basis points (bps) increase by year-end, targeting a 4.60% rate. However, the risk leans more towards a prolonged pause in the RBA's tightening cycle, as policies are already quite restrictive. Australia's attractive carry and strategic exposure to commodities, such as energy, AI, and defense, continue to be significant AUD tailwinds.