Valores para ganar con el alza del rendimiento de la deuda

The profitability of several major references among long-term government bonds in developed markets hit record highs yesterday. This rally in sovereign debt yields is being driven by renewed fears of inflationary tensions and persistent concerns over fiscal pressures faced by some of the world's largest economies. This global scenario is unfavorable for stock investment, as government bond sales have repercussions on economies, as sovereign debt sets the benchmark for corporate borrowing costs and other loans, such as mortgages.

Furthermore, the tightening of financial conditions in general threatens to slow down the economic growth that has contributed to stock markets reaching historic highs.

However, there are particular sectors and stocks that may benefit relative to market and official interest rates, which are always interconnected. According to Joaquín Robles, an analyst at Banco BiG, the insurance sector can benefit the most, as it invests a large portion of the money received from premiums in fixed-income assets like sovereign debt. With higher interest rates, there is greater profitability.

In the short term, the rise in bond yields may have a negative impact on the current portfolios of these companies, but the reality is that these are unrealized losses and have no impact on cash generation, explains Javier Cabrera, an analyst at XTB. Robles focuses on Mapfre, the only representative of the sector on the Ibex, as well as European players like Axa and Allianz.

For Cabrera, Mapfre can benefit from the investment of its substantial liquidity in higher-yielding fixed-income, and through a second avenue. This year, 2023, Mapfre launched numerous life assurance products with 100% guaranteed returns plus assured profitability due to the rise in interest rates, which allowed it to offer such structures, resulting in a 34.8% increase in premiums for this segment compared to the previous year.

The banking sector is among the sectors favored, as it improves the interest margin by being able to lend more expensively and depreciate assets (mortgages and variable-rate credits) faster than costs of financing rise. However, Robles cautions that while banks may benefit from a short-term increase in interest rates due to the increase in interest margins, a rise in interest rates in the medium to long term could lead to tensions in credit demand and growth perspectives.

Among the Spanish banks most sensitive to a rise in ECB rates (the market discounts a 25 basis points increase in September), Unicaja, Bankinter, CaixaBank, and Sabadell are highlighted by analysts due to their rapid depreciation of the domestic portfolio, while Santander and BBVA also benefit, albeit to a lesser extent due to their international diversification.

Companies with very strong balance sheets and little debt may also be in a good position, according to Cabrera. He cites Inditex, Indra, and ACS as examples of firms with net cash that benefit from higher interest rates by being able to remunerate their liquidity at higher rates. In Inditex's case, after the interest rate hikes, the company multiplied its financial income by 4.4 times in 2023.

While it is true that for Inditex and ACS a higher interest environment could weaken demand, they are positioned as leaders and can continue to do well, according to the analyst. Robles acknowledges that rising bond yields could serve companies with a very high net position to increase their financial results, but he does not highlight them as opportunities in this context, as they mostly depend on the evolution of their core business.