US primaries test Democrat comeback hopes in Trump’s stronghold

The US Democratic Party's hopes of regaining lost ground were put to the test in Florida's primary elections. Once a pivotal swing state, Florida has become increasingly conservative under President Donald Trump's influence; in 2024, he secured 13 points. Republicans have leveraged a newly redrawn congressional map to tighten their hold on Congress.

However, Democrats only need a three-seat gain nationally to reclaim the House majority, making Florida crucial for Republican aspirations of maintaining their slim majority. The state's four clear opportunities for Republicans to dislodge Democratic House seats present a favorable environment for their prospects, according to NBC elections analyst Steve Kornacki. Yet, Republicans could alter those chances if their gerrymander in Florida pays off.

Florida's contentious races highlight the Democrats' struggles statewide. Former Republican congressman David Jolly, now a Democrat vehemently critical of Trump, is favored for the governor's nomination. Trump-backed congressman Byron Donalds is the likely Republican contender, set to become Florida's first Black governor. Facing a challenge from businessman James Fishback, who has been accused of racially insensitive remarks, Democrat Alexander Vindman, a key witness in Trump's first impeachment, competes in the Senate primary.

The Democratic Senate primary involves Vindman against a left-leaning state legislator. Republicans also face contentious House primaries, including a lawmaker accused of assault and revenge porn, an Israel supporter with anti-Muslim rhetoric, and a social media personality with an anti-Semitic campaign. Florida is among several states voting, including Alaska for Senate and House, Wyoming for governor, Senate, and an open House seat, and California via a special congressional election between two Democrats to replace Eric Swalwell.

The California race has drawn millions in outside spending from groups linked to the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC. Notably, Trump cast his mail-in ballot in Florida's Republican primary, despite his frequent denunciations of mail-in voting and his calls to restrict its use.