Uganda’s Succession Plan Is Already Underway

Uganda's transition of power is already underway, with Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, son of President Yoweri Museveni, taking on a central role in the country's political landscape. On June 26, Kainerugaba announced the shutdown of two major independent news outlets, the Daily Monitor and NTV Uganda, without waiting for government approval or legal procedures.

He claimed his father's blessing for the move, stating, "In Uganda, I do not believe in a free press." Soldiers swiftly blocked the premises, leading the government to attribute the shutdown to a "security-led inquiry" ordered by Museveni. General Kainerugaba's military background, chairmanship of the Patriotic League of Uganda, and disregard for political activity restrictions have raised concerns about the legitimacy of his ascent to power.

While President Museveni, who has ruled Uganda since 1986, remains in office, opposition figures like Bobi Wine and Kizza Besigye have faced harassment and arrests. Kainerugaba has increasingly directed the military to suppress dissent, including against Wine, who was assaulted by security forces in January 2024. The UN high commissioner for human rights, Volker Turk, condemned Uganda's crackdowns, citing increased military involvement in civilian affairs.

Despite Museveni's controversial rule, many Ugandans are hesitant to openly challenge the government due to past repressive tactics. Some observers view Kainerugaba's actions as a "gentle, slow-moving coup," while Museveni's advancing age may force him to delegate more power to his son. It remains uncertain whether Kainerugaba will run for president or assume power through another means, but his role in Ugandan politics is becoming increasingly significant.