Ubah: $50bn Deep Offshore Framework Targets Next Oil Cycle

Dr. Ifeanyi Ubah, the Chief Investment Officer of VNL Capital Asset Management, revealed that Nigeria's recently approved $50 billion deep offshore investment framework is geared towards preparing the nation for the subsequent oil cycle, rather than capitalizing on the existing oil prices. In an interview on Arise News' Global Business Report, Ubah outlined that the lengthy development time of deepwater projects implies that the projects approved under this framework are likely to commence production in 2030 or 2031.

At that point, global oil demand is anticipated to experience only slight growth. When questioned about the framework's time-frame, OPEC's demand forecasts, and the outlook for crude oil prices, Ubah emphasized that the policy serves as a long-term investment strategy. He explained that these projects are typically long-term affairs, so initiating a project this year would likely conclude around 2030 or 2031.

Given OPEC's current projections, demand expectations are expected to be modest during this period. Therefore, this strategy is essentially positioning Nigeria for its own oil cycle, rather than chasing the market's current pricing. Ubah also highlighted that the incentives embedded in the framework are substantial enough to improve the economics of deepwater investments and entice new capital into the sector.

These incentives include tax incentives of up to $11.50 per barrel, along with a 70:30 profit-sharing agreement between contractors and the government. According to Ubah, such incentives could stimulate fresh private and foreign investment into Nigeria's oil and gas industry, while simultaneously generating skilled employment and bolstering local technical expertise.