미 국채 이자가 국방비 넘어서…제국 쇠퇴 시계 ‘째깍째깍’

The United States and Japan jointly intervened in the foreign exchange market on November 31st, buying up Japanese yen in response to its sharp decline to a 40-year low. The US Treasury sold euro-denominated US Treasuries through the New York Federal Reserve to buy yen, while Japan's Finance Ministry and Bank of Japan injected about ¥13.8 trillion (US$126 billion).

This was the first time since the 1998 Asian financial crisis, 28 years later. The intervention came amid concerns about a potential "domino effect" of currency instability, similar to that triggered by the Asian crisis. US Treasury Secretary Stephen Bennett explained the move as necessary to prevent other currencies from following suit.

However, some experts believe the real aim was to prevent the US from having to buy back its own debt, as Japan holds the largest foreign holdings of US Treasuries. The precise design involved the US selling euros to buy yen, while Japan used debt sales to raise dollars, reflecting the underlying concern about the US national debt.

US debt has surpassed 100% of GDP since 2010, reaching 31.265 trillion dollars in March, the highest level since the post-World War II era. The cost of servicing this debt is alarming, with interest payments alone at $97 billion last year, expected to exceed $1 trillion this year. The US Treasury's hidden goal is to prevent a scenario where it would have to buy back its own debt, which would require selling more Treasuries and potentially raising interest rates further.

This precise maneuver illustrates the US's greatest fear: the vulnerability of its own national debt market.