Stocks fall, oil gains on West Asia uncertainty: Markets wrap

Asian markets were poised to mirror Wall Street's downward trend as soaring oil prices fueled inflation fears and faded hopes for an Iran war resolution. Futures for equity indices forecasted declines in Sydney, Tokyo, and Hong Kong on Tuesday, with South Korean markets set to reopen after a holiday. US equity contracts remained flat after the S&P 500 dipped 0.5% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.2% in New York.

Chip manufacturers experienced gains as news of Anthropic's unprecedented sales growth bolstered confidence in AI-related stocks. West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices stayed close to $85 a barrel, up nearly 3% the prior day, reigniting worries that energy expenses could reignite inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates before the year's end.

The dollar index fell to its lowest since May, while 30-year Treasury yields climbed to their highest point since 2007, reaching 4.72%. The prospect of a lasting Middle East peace deal grew more remote after President Donald Trump expressed no interest in extending the expiring Iran agreement, and tensions flared anew in Lebanon.

Market observers will now scrutinize oil prices and bond yields for signs of a sustained inflation shock that could spur bets on Federal Reserve tightening and pressure overvalued equities. Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., remarked on the unsettling situation in West Asia and the US 10-year note yield pushing above 4.7%.

The elevated long-term Treasury yields remain a source of concern, as investors grapple with heavy government spending, a surge in long-dated debt issuance, and persistent inflation above the Fed's target for over five years.