Russia Has No Plans for Peace Deal This Year, Ukraine Says

Ukraine's Defense Intelligence Directorate (HUR) warns that Russia has no intentions of reaching a peace agreement this year, with Deputy Chief Vadym Skibitsky stating in an interview that President Vladimir Putin plans to continue military operations and pursue territorial objectives, including capturing the full Donetsk region.

Skibitsky predicts Russia will continue attacking Ukraine's defense industry, military installations, energy infrastructure, logistics, and fuel stations throughout the fall and winter, with electricity and heating being particularly vulnerable during the cold months. Additionally, Russia is developing a drone capable of attacking power transmission lines, and targeting water infrastructure, bridges, and critical infrastructure in the Odesa region.

HUR estimates Russia has around 670,000 troops in combat, with another 65,000 in reserve, and their losses are outpacing new recruitments. Russia aims to recruit 409,000 contract soldiers by 2026, and they could theoretically launch an offensive from northern Ukraine, including targeting Kyiv or Chernihiv regions. However, Skibitsky notes there are no indications Russia is preparing such an operation.

Despite this, HUR warns that Ukrainian long-range attacks are having a growing impact on Russia, affecting oil refineries, disrupting logistics, and destroying military systems. Russia's current focus on NATO primarily involves asymmetric and hybrid threats, including drones, information campaigns, and growing political and civic movements supportive of Moscow. According to HUR assessments, Russia is preparing for a potential war with NATO by 2030.