Russia could attack Kyiv and Chernihiv in 2027 if draft starts in fall
Russia could launch a new offensive against Kyiv and Chernihiv oblasts in early 2027 if the Kremlin conducts a fresh wave of mobilization this fall, Military Intelligence (HUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi told RBC-Ukraine on Aug. 18.
Military Intelligence Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi warns that Russia may conduct a fresh draft in fall 2027, potentially leading to an offensive against Kyiv and Chernihiv oblasts. The timing will hinge on Russia's State Duma elections in September, when indicators of mobilization will become apparent. Despite the impossibility of covert mobilization, Putin's 2022 decree remains in force.
Intelligence data suggests Russia has approximately 670,000 active combat personnel and 65,000 in reserve, with battlefield casualties surpassing monthly contract recruitment figures. Russia's military command has been disseminating misleading information about its gains in northern Ukraine to support a broader narrative of offensive momentum.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War note that the Kremlin may overstate tactical gains to bolster its stance.
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