Nifty slips below 24,200 for sixth straight session as crude, geopolitics bite

The Nifty slipped below 24,200 for a sixth straight day, dragged down by crude oil prices surging past $91 a barrel and lingering doubts about a resolution to regional tensions. Brent crude crossed the $91 mark, intensifying fears of inflation and foreign outflows. The Nifty 50 closed at 24,154.90, down 132.75 points from the previous close, dipping below the 24,200 support level.

The Sensex followed with a 0.6 per cent decline, marking its worst six-day performance in recent weeks. Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, attributed the market anxiety to the failure of hopes for a West Asia resolution. Foreign institutional investors continued to sell equities, with ₹2,535 crore exiting the market in a single day.

A temporary US-Iran ceasefire expired, leading to Iran's hardening stance and the US ruling out an extension, further rattling markets. The US 10-year Treasury yield remained steady at around 4.73 per cent, making dollar assets more appealing relative to emerging markets. The rupee weakened by 0.15 per cent, closing around ₹95.68-95.70 against the dollar, with the Reserve Bank of India intervening to prevent further depreciation.

Sectorally, IT experienced the most significant losses, with the Nifty IT index falling nearly 2 per cent for the third consecutive session. Real estate, PSU banks, and FMCG sectors also endured sustained selling pressure. Healthcare, auto, and media industries managed to remain positive. While broader markets showed relative stability, with the Nifty Smallcap 100 ending flat and the Nifty Midcap 100 slipping 0.43 per cent, analysts are pessimistic about any near-term recovery.

Elevated crude prices, geopolitical uncertainties, and foreign selling are expected to keep sentiment subdued. However, resilient domestic fundamentals and government policies may offer some medium-term support. Support levels of 24,000 and 23,800 are seen as potential entry points for a potential bounce back, with 24,250 acting as the first hurdle on any recovery.