New Zealand Dollar: Market overpricing RBNZ hikes – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that foreign holdings of New Zealand government bonds rose to 58.9% in July 2026, while NZD/USD trades slightly above its 12‑month average.
BNY analyst Geoff Yu points out that foreign ownership of New Zealand government bonds reached 58.9% in July 2026, up from 57.7% in June. Despite strong domestic economic activity, Yu expresses skepticism about the market's pricing suggesting two more Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate hikes by the end of the year. He cites well-anchored inflation expectations and stable nontradables inflation as factors diminishing the likelihood of further tightening.
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