Netanyahu comes out on top in Likud primaries, but voters want more - analysis

The Likud primaries concluded, and the results indicate that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains the top winner among the candidates. Those who were favored by Netanyahu, such as Amir Ohana, Amichai Chikli, and Almog Cohen, fared well. Conversely, individuals with whom Netanyahu had conflicts, like David Bitan, Tali Gotliv, and Nir Barkat, did not do as well.

While it is tempting to focus on the personalities involved, it is more important to identify the underlying trends within the party. A list of winners and losers could easily begin with Eli Cohen, who received the most votes after Netanyahu, followed by Ohana in third place. Rounding out the top five, excluding Netanyahu, were Yariv Levin, Miri Regev, and Ofir Katz. However, it is essential to look back at the past four Likud primaries, starting from 2008, to gain a better understanding of the situation.

Out of the 15 individuals who occupied the top five slots during that period, nearly half later left the party, either temporarily or permanently. Reasons for their departure varied, including ideological clashes with Netanyahu, feeling there was no pathway for advancement, or leaving public life due to scandal. Prominent figures such as Yoav Gallant, Yuli Edelstein, Moshe Kahlon, Benny Begin, and Gilad Erdan eventually left the party, while Silvan Shalom left public life due to scandal and Gideon Sa'ar left the Likud because he felt his path to advancement was blocked before returning later.

The lesson to be learned from this is that today's winners, those who finished in the top five, are not guaranteed to compete in the party's future primaries. Instead, the more revealing question is which trends have emerged.

The primaries demonstrated the importance of loyalty to Netanyahu. Cohen and Ohana exemplified this, as they consistently backed the prime minister while carefully avoiding positioning themselves as immediate alternatives. As a result, they were not perceived as threats. Unlike earlier top finishers like Erdan, Sa'ar, and Edelstein, Cohen and Ohana never suggested they intended to challenge Netanyahu, either now or in the near future.

Interestingly, voters rewarded them for their lack of eagerness to challenge Netanyahu. By not presenting themselves as alternatives, they established themselves as front-runners to inherit the party leadership when the post-Netanyahu era begins.

Winning a general election requires electoral pragmatism. The results also suggest that the Likud rank and file understands that simply holding a primary is not enough. The party must win the general election, which requires candidates who can appeal beyond the most dedicated Likud supporters. Polarizing figures, such as Tali Gotliv and May Golan, do not fit this bill. Gotliv was placed 20th, while Golan, who currently serves as a minister, did not secure a realistic position in the primary.

This complicates the narrative that the party has been completely taken over by its fringe. The voters appear to have recognized the danger of alienating moderate right-wing and swing voters, and therefore chose a slate in which prominent firebrands were demoted or removed from realistic positions. The Likud's base did not abandon the Right; instead, they chose politicians who they believe can translate ideology into policy rather than those who merely shout into microphones.

The voters also indicated that they do not want political firebrands who engage in undisciplined fights and rant on social media, potentially alienating many voters. Gotliv's demotion and Golan's failure to secure a realistic slot illustrate that the Likud base has an internal system of checks. The shock value of their rhetoric may garner attention and likes on platforms like TikTok, but the voters ultimately concluded that the kind of political mayhem they engage in is ultimately an electoral liability.

Those who appeared to be independent from Netanyahu paid a price in the primaries. Bitan, for example, received a low ranking due to his repeated criticism of Netanyahu. Gallant and Edelstein, who also displayed independence, never made it to the primary. Generally, those elevated to the top positions toe the party line—or more accurately, Netanyahu's line. While margins of difference exist, there is little tolerance for dissent on issues important to the party leader.

In conclusion, a high primary finish in the Likud is a double-edged sword. It demonstrates grassroots popularity, media visibility, and support within the party—qualities necessary for anyone hoping eventually to lead it. However, under Netanyahu, such qualities can also make a rising politician a perceived threat. Figures like Sa'ar, Erdan, and Edelstein all encountered this problem, as their strong positions within the party made them appear as potential contenders.