MP Kihara: Ol Kalou poll showed UDA could not predict how voters would vote

Naivasha Member of Parliament Jayne Kihara has revealed that the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) failed to accurately predict the results of the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election despite their substantial campaign efforts. Speaking on August 18, 2026, Kihara stated that the outcome highlighted the growing tendency among Kenyan voters to make their own decisions at the polls.

While UDA made extensive campaign efforts and offered incentives, they could not foresee how constituents would cast their ballots. "There was no way of knowing how people were going to vote," Kihara remarked, recalling her campaign experience. She noted that voters were willing to attend meetings and accept campaign materials, yet opted not to vote for the party offering these, often choosing instead to collect incentives first.

This experience demonstrated that political parties cannot assume they know how Kenyans will vote based on attendance at rallies or participation in campaigns. "They wouldn't know! They did not know, until the vote was cast. That tells you Kenyans are awake. They know that when we lie to them, they know," Kihara emphasized. The Ol Kalou contest, won by DCP candidate Sammy Douglas Waweru Kamau with 35,440 votes, contrasted sharply with UDA candidate Samuel Muchina Nyaga, who received 5,450 votes.

According to IEBC, UDA spent approximately Ksh100 million in the constituency, which included various incentives like LPG cylinders, mattresses, food donations, and other resources. The results have sparked debate about the 2027 General Election, prompting discussions on whether campaign spending and mobilisation can secure electoral victories.

Kihara believes these findings should prompt political leaders to reconsider their voter engagement strategies. "Because you have been disappointed, yes, you moved with them last time, but you were lied to, together with them. Now, you have been awakened, together with them," she stated. The outcome of Ol Kalou is seen as a significant political setback for UDA, with Kamau's victory by over 29,000 votes despite the UDA's extensive campaign efforts.