Madagascar: In Madagascar, Gen-Z Overthrew a Corrupt Regime but the Battle Against State Capture Has Barely Begun

In late 2025, youth-led protests in Madagascar evolved from demands for basic services like water and electricity into calls for political change, ultimately forcing President Andry Rajoelina into exile. These demonstrations, primarily led by Gen-Z protesters (born between 1997 and 2012), focused on themes of dignity, corruption, and a broken social contract.

A military-led transitional government seized power during the turmoil. A new book by Ketakandriana Rafitoson and Tom Shipley argues that these protests effectively overthrew a "captured state." But what does it mean for a state to be captured, and what can be expected next in Madagascar?

State capture occurs when political and business networks manipulate laws and institutions to benefit themselves, rather than representing the public interest. This is distinct from everyday corruption, which involves breaking rules for personal gain. The concept gained prominence during protests in countries like Bangladesh, Serbia, and Madagascar.

In Madagascar, state capture is evident in several areas. The constitution, enacted in 2010 amid a political crisis, grants the president extensive powers, including the ability to appoint one-third of the senate. This has enabled former President Rajoelina to build patronage networks. The state bureaucracy is dominated by political loyalists, and key institutions, such as the national power and water utility, have been targeted for corrupt practices.

This has led to poor access to basic services, hindering economic prospects for the young protesters. The military government has also attempted to control accountability mechanisms, including an anti-corruption court, by manipulating its design to ensure immunity for themselves. Additionally, captor networks have generated profits from illegal activities like rosewood logging, vanilla, and gold exports, demonstrating that they can operate outside the formal state structures.

The current protests have faced challenges, including low trust in the movement among citizens and infiltration by the military government and old networks. However, a national dialogue scheduled for August 2026 could offer an opportunity to redefine the rules of governance in a captured state. Constitutional changes are expected to be discussed, but concerns exist about the independence of church groups overseeing the process.

European governments are currently focusing on the election timetable, but the path to a fully functional democracy in Madagascar remains uncertain.