Kenya food prices: Why better rains could ease pressure as EAC food outlook splits

Kenyan households may experience some respite from food pressures early in 2027 due to anticipated better rainfall, which could enhance harvests, pasture quality, and income availability. However, neighboring Uganda is expected to face increasing food assistance requirements as the region enters 2027. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) forecasts the number of Kenyans needing urgent food aid to decrease from 3.5 million to 2.49 million between August 2026 and February 2027.

FEWS NET anticipates that the above-average October-December short rains will boost water availability and soil moisture, potentially leading to improved pasture growth and harvests by February. This could result in increased market supplies, potentially easing household food pressures. However, localized flooding associated with El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may disrupt these improvements.

While Kenya stands to benefit from potentially higher pasture and harvests, Uganda is projected to require more food assistance as the country enters the new year. Also, Burundi might see lower food prices after improved harvests but will likely remain vulnerable to economic pressures.