Is Yemen's endless war serving a US-Israeli agenda?

Is Yemen's ongoing conflict serving strategic interests of the United States and Israel? The assertion is not unfounded, as a closer examination of the war's dynamics suggests. Since 2015, the Saudi-led coalition has been battling the Houthis in Yemen, but the conflict remains unresolved and has not resulted in a definitive victory for any side.

This situation aligns with the strategic theory proposed by US strategist Edward Luttwak in 1999, which suggests that sometimes the strategic interest lies in ensuring no side prevails, preserving a balance that prevents any party from defeating the others.

Yemen's strategic significance lies in its geographical location. Control of Yemen would give Iran a strong foothold along more than 1,000km of Saudi Arabia's border, threatening Saudi energy facilities and infrastructure. For the US and Israel, this would pose a significant vulnerability, particularly through Bab al-Mandeb, a crucial maritime passage. A Houthi-controlled Yemen could also serve as a forward base for Iran, further endangering regional stability.

However, completely defeating the Houthis is also a complex task due to their deep-rooted presence in Yemen's political, tribal, and social fabric. They have administrative institutions and their removal would be far from straightforward. The vacuum left by the Houthis would be filled by various actors, each with their own vision of Yemen and different definitions of friend and enemy. This fragmentation makes any settlement exceedingly difficult, explaining the US's inconsistent policy towards Yemen since 2015.

The US has alternated between supporting Saudi Arabia and engaging with Iran, reflecting a strategic balancing act rather than a commitment to a Saudi victory. The US's policy has been aimed at managing the balance, not securing a victory for any particular side. This strategy has been evident in the US's intensified strikes on the Houthis over shipping attacks, followed by a deal mediated by Oman, which allowed the Houthis to cease targeting US vessels. The goal was not to end Houthi rule or the war, but to regulate specific behavior within it.

The war in Yemen has thus become a test of a strategic theory, a "draw" that preserves a balance and prevents any party from achieving a definitive victory. This framework has also been observed in other conflict zones like Sudan, Libya, Iraq, and Lebanon, where US and Israeli policies have fragmented and exhausted societies instead of resolving conflicts. The US and Israel's strategic interests in Yemen appear to be serving a broader, multi-faceted agenda rather than a simple desire to see one side prevail.