Indian shares set for muted open as oil tops $91, US-Iran ceasefire expires

Indian stocks are expected to open relatively stable on Tuesday, as the temporary US-Iran truce ends and the chances of a resolution to the conflict dwindle, contributing to oil prices remaining above $91 per barrel. Iran's possible shift to a more aggressive approach, coupled with U.S. President Donald Trump's declaration against extending the ceasefire, has heightened concerns about possible supply disruptions.

Moreover, the potential for persistently higher crude prices might reignite inflation concerns for India, which holds the third-largest position as an oil importer globally. At 7:33 a.m. IST on Tuesday, GIFT Nifty futures were trading at 24,311.50 points, signaling a subdued opening for the Nifty 50 index, which closed at 24,287.65 on Monday.

The Nifty 50 has experienced five consecutive days of declines, while the Sensex has slipped in four out of the previous five sessions, with both indices experiencing losses of 1.2% and 1.04%, respectively, over the same timeframe. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, commented, "With no significant advancement in resolving the U.S.-Iran dispute and President Trump refusing to extend the 60-day temporary ceasefire, domestic markets are expected to approach trading with a cautious outlook."

Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) withdrew Indian stocks amounting to 25.35 billion rupees ($265.17 million) on Monday, whereas domestic institutional investors (DII) emerged as net buyers, accumulating inflows of 51.01 billion rupees according to NSE's preliminary figures.