Heavy showers and thunderstorms bring risk of flash flooding to UK

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to cause flash flooding risks in various parts of the UK. While many regions will experience heavy showers, some areas in northern England, Northern Ireland, and southern Scotland may not receive significant rain. Tuesday will begin wet across northern and central parts of the UK, with Scotland and Northern Ireland staying showery throughout the day.

A cold front will bring cloud and light rain to southern England and Wales on Wednesday, though some areas may remain dry. By Thursday, showers will spread more widely as low pressure moves southward across the UK, with thunderstorms developing more widely as well. Some of these showers may be very heavy and slow-moving, posing a risk of hail, lightning, and localised flooding.

Drought officials have reported that 71.3% of England and all of Wales are currently in drought, following the driest July since records began in 1836. As drought conditions continue, compacted ground can make it more water repellent, increasing the risk of flash flooding during heavy downpours. Temperatures are expected to drop below average for the first time in weeks, with Scotland and Northern Ireland experiencing highs of 13-18C, and England and Wales forecast to range from 18-22C by Thursday.

While the area of low pressure bringing the showers will also bring cooler Arctic air, forecast models suggest that intense heat will not return in August, though there may be an early indication of heat developing in September. The Met Office predicts that the start of meteorological autumn could potentially see the chance of hot spells or heatwaves developing in the south, but there is significant uncertainty at this stage.