Forex Today: Mood sours as Middle East tensions come back under spotlight
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, August 18:
Tensions in the Middle East have reignited, casting a shadow over financial markets on Tuesday, August 18. The US economic calendar, which includes housing data, Import Price Index, Export Price Index, and Industrial Production figures for July, is anticipated to trigger volatility. The US Dollar emerged as the strongest currency against major peers, including the New Zealand Dollar.
The financial markets' cautious approach was primarily driven by the lingering Middle East tensions. US President Donald Trump had previously signaled a potential bombing of Oman in response to the Memorandum of Understanding, which had expired. The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported an incident involving an unknown projectile striking a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, further heightening concerns.
The US Dollar's strength was further bolstered by a surge in the price of WTI crude oil, which reached a near $84.70 level, up 0.7% for the day. Additionally, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield climbed to its highest level since January 2025 at 4.75%, reflecting the heightened risk in the region.
Analysts at OCBC anticipate that the greenback will remain range-bound in the short term, supported by attractive USD carry and a recent pause in the USD's bullish momentum resulting from weaker-than-expected US economic data. The potential postponement of a September Federal Reserve rate hike also contributes to this outlook.
Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair initially rose to a fresh two-month high above 1.1600 but later fell back to around 1.1570. The UK's Office for National Statistics reported that the ILO Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.9% in the three months to June, with employment increasing by 83K and annualized wage inflation at 3.5%.
Gold experienced a slight correction, trading below $4,400, while USD/JPY rose modestly on the day at 159.80. The Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3% year-over-year in July, surpassing market expectations of 2.9%. The USD/CAD pair remained in a consolidation phase below 1.3900.
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