FEWS net food forecast: Why Kenya could see relief as Uganda’s food needs rise
Kenya could see a sharp decline in the number of people requiring urgent food assistance by February 2027, while Uganda is projected to experience a near doubling of its food assistance needs, according to a new FEWS NET forecast. The contrasting outlooks offer a revealing picture of food security across East Africa. FEWS NET projects […]
The latest food security forecast from FEWS NET predicts that Kenya could see a significant drop in the number of people needing emergency food aid by early 2027, while Uganda is expected to see a sharp rise in similar needs over the same period. This stark difference reflects the contrasting food security pressures the two neighboring countries will face in 2027.
In Kenya, the number of people requiring urgent assistance projected to fall from 3.5 to 2.5 million between August 2026 and February 2027. The improvement is largely due to expectations of better water availability and soil moisture following the October-December short rains. These favorable conditions are expected to boost pasture growth and harvests, improving food access and income for most Kenyan households, except in refugee camps where humanitarian food assistance will remain crucial.
Uganda, however, is projected to see the opposite trend, with its food assistance needs expected to rise from 1 to 2.5 million people over the same timeframe. The report notes that gains in Uganda will be limited to second-season harvests in bimodal areas, and while these may temporarily lower food prices, they are unlikely to fully alleviate the broader pressures.
The country's food security concerns will persist, particularly among refugee populations and in the Karamoja region, where weak livelihoods and declining livestock ownership pose significant challenges.
Comparing the two forecasts, it becomes clear that Kenya's projected improvement can be attributed to a combination of better weather conditions and improved agricultural outcomes, while Uganda will continue to struggle with a combination of refugee arrivals and stagnant livelihoods. For Burundi, FEWS NET anticipates a mixed outlook, with improved harvests and prices by February, but also warns of Stressed outcomes due to macroeconomic issues.
Overall, the forecast illustrates that East Africa's food security situation in 2027 will be uneven, with Kenya on track for lower assistance needs, Uganda facing a significant increase, and Burundi remaining vulnerable to economic and weather-related pressures.
Written by urgent.news from People Daily Kenya's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
