Fake polling from mysterious company highlights danger of unvetted election surveys

In a competitive reelection race, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass declared on social media that a new poll confirmed her campaign was gaining momentum. However, it was later revealed that the poll was fabricated. Median Strategies, a newly discovered organization, admitted to the Los Angeles Times that the poll was a fake. The company claimed the experiment was intended to examine how unverified polling information could spread through the political information ecosystem.

This incident highlights the dangers of relying on unvetted election surveys. High-quality independent polls are still available, but they are often surrounded by other surveys created by outside groups, campaigns, or super PACs using dubious methodologies. It can be difficult to discern the truth from these sources, and even campaigns may fall prey to falsified data.

Chris Wilson, a veteran Republican pollster, noted that it is now easier than ever to create fake but convincing numbers, and campaigns and outside groups have strong incentives to spread favorable information before it can be verified. Median Strategies' fake polls, which claimed to evaluate support in the Democratic primary for governor in Wisconsin, Nevada, and the mayoral race in Los Angeles, were shared by the Bass campaign on social media before being exposed as false.

The Bass campaign defended its actions by stating that the poll was reported on by multiple news outlets. However, the poll did not include basic information needed for vetting, such as the organization behind the firm. Major independent aggregators, including The New York Times and Real Clear Politics, did not include the poll in their databases due to the lack of essential information.

Transparency is crucial for evaluating poll findings, but the Median Strategies fake polls lacked such transparency. Will Davis, director of Election Data Analytics at The New York Times, emphasized that pollsters typically provide this information as standard practice. When asked for more details, Median Strategies did not respond.

While admissions of falsified polling data are rare, they are not unheard of. In 2010, the left-leaning blog Daily Kos reported fraudulent polling by a firm called Research 2000. However, pollsters often release surveys with minimal information about their methods, questions, and funding. Higher-quality polls rely on expensive techniques like randomized sampling, so many pollsters opt for cheaper alternatives.