European gas: LNG inflows key for prices – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke argues that European gas storage will depend on higher LNG imports over winter, as current inflows of 8 bcm per month would see storages trend toward 0% by March.
Commerzbank's Norman Liebke suggests that Europe's gas storage will hinge on increased LNG imports during the winter months. Presently, inflows of 8 billion cubic meters (bcm) per month could drive storage levels to 0% by March. He believes 10 bcm is realistic, but warns that delayed import recovery, high Asian demand, and absent Qatari LNG could pose upside risks for European gas and electricity prices.
If this level persists through spring, gas storage would be around 70% in October and near 0% by March. A balanced scenario of 10 bcm would result in about 16% storage levels just before the replenishment phase. Liebke considers 10 bcm to be plausible, while 12 bcm appears excessively high due to sustained high demand for US LNG from Asia.
This exacerbates the need for more imports, boosting price risks and further elevating European electricity prices. The story, aided by AI, was reviewed by an editor.
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