Crude extends gains, stocks stagger as Mideast hopes dim

Oil prices climbed and stocks declined on Tuesday as a deal between the United States and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained uncertain, following the expiration of a truce deadline. Despite soft US economic data this month, which reduced worries about an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike, traders anticipate persistent high inflation due to the ongoing Middle East crisis and the high price of crude, which has hovered around $90 a barrel.

This has driven up long-term Treasury yields to levels not observed since June 2007, just prior to the onset of the global financial crisis, fueled by increased US borrowing and a surge in corporate bond issuance to finance AI investments. The likelihood of an agreement between Washington and Tehran appears slim, as Trump stated he would not extend a 60-day truce outlined in a June memorandum of understanding, and Iran dismissed it as irrelevant due to the US violation earlier.

Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, reported that both sides were holding "very positive and active conversations," but highlighted the lack of trust between the nations. Trump expressed patience, stating he wouldn't rush to a deal, adding that it would be "the right deal when the right deal is ready." He also threatened military action against Oman if it interferes with the agreement, referring to ongoing talks between Muscat and Tehran concerning control of the waterway.

The US government appears content to adopt a long-term strategy, which investors fear may result in sustained higher oil prices for an extended period. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned last week of potentially unprecedented economic isolation for Iran and new measures in the coming week. This came after Trump suggested the US was "low-keying it," acknowledging Iran's high inflation and lack of funds.

Both crude market indices increased on Tuesday, following a two percent gain the day before, with Brent reaching above $91. Equities were mixed, with the South Korean market surging over two percent in early trading after reopening following a long weekend, but then retracing, while Sydney, Wellington, and Jakarta also rose. However, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore, Taipei, and Manila all experienced declines.

Investment experts noted that despite previous attempts to separate concerns regarding Iran's war, oil volatility, and rising long-term Treasury yields, the convergence of these risks has made the situation more challenging for investors.