Business Cycle Indicators: June Production
Industrial production below consensus (+0.2% m/m vs. +0.3% Bloomberg), manufacturing at consensus, although previous month’s revised up. Output measures continue to outpace employment. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green),…
In June, industrial production fell short of forecasts, generating a 0.2% month-over-month increase compared to the expected 0.3%. The manufacturing sector, however, met expectations. Though output indicators have surpassed employment measures, the discrepancy persists. Analysts are observing that while industrial production remains robust, job growth continues to outpace production figures.
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