British Pound: Softer as jobs data cools hikes – ING

British Pound weakens as UK labor data disappoints economists. ING's Chris Turner reports a firmer EUR/GBP after the release of the latest jobs figures, highlighting a cool jobs market and minimal wage pressures, signaling little urgency for the Bank of England to raise rates this year. Sterling money markets still price in 60 basis points of BoE tightening into next year, which Turner expects to be gradually priced out over the next three to six months.

Despite the slight decrease in payroll employment, the overall picture remains unchanged – the jobs market remains unimpressive, and wage pressures are minimal. The unemployment rate has increased slightly, but the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has already disclosed potential sampling issues with the labor force survey, adding to existing concerns.

However, the basic story remains the same – the British economy continues to show signs of weakness, with little impetus for the Bank of England to hike interest rates in 2023. The sterling money market curve still anticipates 60bp of Bank of England hikes into the following year. Looking ahead, next week's UK agenda includes tomorrow's July CPI, with a lower year-on-year services number potentially supporting the dovish stance of the Bank of England. EUR/GBP is currently biased towards the 0.8570/80 range.