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British Pound: Soft UK jobs but supportive mix - BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad describes United Kingdom (UK) June labor data as soft, with unemployment stuck at 4.9% and private sector regular pay growth slowing to 2.8% year-on-year.

British Pound: Soft UK jobs but supportive mix - BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) analyst Elias Haddad has assessed the June UK labor data as underwhelming, with unemployment remaining at 4.9% and private sector regular pay growth decelerating to 2.8% year-on-year. Haddad believes that the current Bank of England (BoE) rate hike expectations of 60 basis points (bps) over the next 12 months are overly aggressive, given the UK's negative output gap.

The policy-relevant private sector regular pay growth slowed to 2.8% year-on-year in June, matching consensus expectations and the BoE's projection. Despite the soft jobs data, Haddad still sees support for the British Pound (GBP) due to the country's favorable growth-inflation mix.

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