Bitcoin correction may be nearing an end with 8 of 12 capitulation signals flashing, VanEck says
Long-term holders shed roughly 356,000 bitcoin over the past month, pushing their share of supply below 60%.
Bitcoin may be nearing the end of an 11-month correction and entering an accumulation phase, according to VanEck's research team. Eight of their 12 capitulation signals are currently active, indicating the market has experienced price capitulation and is in the process of accumulating. Bitcoin is currently trading around $64,700, having remained range-bound between $58,000 and $66,500 since mid-June.
The cryptocurrency is about 48% below its all-time high of $126,300 set in October 2025. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen renewed demand, with net inflows of just under $300 million on Monday, their strongest single day since May 5. While the three previous bear market phases have taken an average of 12.7 months from peak to maximum drawdown, VanEck suggests a potential transition to accumulation in September through November based on historical cycles.
However, they caution against treating these capitulation signals as reliable short-term buy signals, as similar periods have historically produced average 90-day and 180-day returns below the baseline. Long-term holders of Bitcoin now make up less than 60% of the circulating supply for the first time in months.
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