Battered by war, Iran’s rulers wary of more economic pain and unrest if US tightens pressure

Iran's leaders are wary of facing more economic hardship and potential unrest if the United States tightens its pressure on Iran through further economic sanctions, despite projecting resilience in their ongoing war with the U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened increased economic measures against Iran, following Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's announcement that such actions would commence within the next week.

Iran's leaders seek to avoid reigniting mass unrest, as economic suffering has already led to protests in the past, with thousands killed in January's nationwide protests over economic hardships. Iran's annual inflation rate reached 66% in July, with consumer prices 87.9% higher than a year prior, and food inflation hitting 128%.

Economic pressure has led families to cut back on meat, leading to shortages and higher prices for staple goods. The country's minimum wage has been raised, but the rial's depreciation has eroded purchasing power. Iran's leaders have responded to the risk of unrest with executions, arrests, and lengthy prison sentences for journalists, lawyers, activists, and students, aiming to maintain stability during the war.

However, this approach may deepen the divide between the clerical establishment and a public frustrated by economic pressures.